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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Shpjegon Irena Beqiraj, ish-zv.Ministre e Financave:<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb ka ndikuar n\u00eb mbi\u00e7mimin e lekut? <\/p>\n
Albert Einstein thoshte: “Jo \u00e7do gj\u00eb q\u00eb ka vler\u00eb num\u00ebrohet edhe jo \u00e7do gj\u00eb q\u00eb num\u00ebrohet ka vler\u00eb “. <\/p>\n
Kjo shprehje m’u kujtua nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrmblidhja k\u00ebto rreshta p\u00ebr mbivler\u00ebsimin e lekut ose si\u00e7 e quan Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb mbi\u00e7mim e lekut.<\/p>\n
A e shpjegojn\u00eb dot mbi\u00e7mimin e lekut t\u00eb ardhurat nga turizmi ?<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa mbi\u00e7mimi m\u00eb i madh i lekut \u00ebsht\u00eb v\u00ebrejtur n\u00eb vitin 2023, korelacioni i flukseve nga turizmi dhe vler\u00ebsimit vjetor t\u00eb Lekut Shqiptar (ALL) kundrejt Euros (EUR) nga viti 2020 n\u00eb vitin 2025 \u00ebsht\u00eb i ul\u00ebt , 0.31.
\nSipas modelimit ekonometrik t\u00eb Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, vet\u00ebm 23% e paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebris\u00eb s\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme dhe vler\u00ebsimit strukturor t\u00eb lekut mund ti atribuohet drejtp\u00ebrdrejt t\u00eb ardhurave nga turizmi.<\/p>\n
Po fluksi i investimeve t\u00eb huaja Direkte sa ndikon ?<\/p>\n
Koeficienti i korelacionit Pearson midis rritjes vjetore (YoY) % t\u00eb flukseve t\u00eb Investimeve t\u00eb Huaja Direkte (IHD) dhe vler\u00ebsimit vjetor t\u00eb Lekut Shqiptar (ALL) kundrejt Euros (EUR) nga viti 2020 n\u00eb vitin 2025 \u00ebsht\u00eb negativ -0.3588.<\/p>\n
Ky korelacion i dob\u00ebt negativ midis shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtimit t\u00eb rritjes s\u00eb IHD-ve dhe shkall\u00ebs s\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtimit t\u00eb vler\u00ebsimit t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs gjat\u00eb k\u00ebsaj periudhe specifike tregon se p\u00ebrshpejtimi i vler\u00ebsimit t\u00eb Lekut ka qen\u00eb i shk\u00ebputur statistikisht nga shpejt\u00ebsia e rritjes n\u00eb p\u00ebrqindje t\u00eb IHD-ve.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb mbeten ? Remitancat ose d\u00ebrgesat! <\/p>\n
I vetmi korelacion pozitiv rreth 0.75 vihet re midis rritjes vjetore (YoY) % t\u00eb flukseve t\u00eb nga remitancat dhe mbi\u00e7mimit vjetor t\u00eb Lekut Shqiptar kundrejt Euros (EUR) <\/p>\n
Por fatkeq\u00ebsisht pesha e tyre specifike n\u00eb shtes\u00ebn e ofert\u00ebs monetare por edhe si p\u00ebrqindje e PBN-s\u00eb nuk mund t\u00eb shpjegojn\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsisht mbicmimin e p\u00ebrjetuar t\u00eb lekut . <\/p>\n
Pra , analiza ekonometrike tregon se n\u00eb vitet 2020 – 2025 , 25% deri n\u00eb 40 % e mbi cmimit t\u00eb lekut mbetet e pajustifikuar nga t\u00eb ardhurat nga turizmi , investimet e huaja direkte , apo remitancat q\u00eb kalojn\u00eb nga kanale zyrtare . <\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa, shifrat zyrtare t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb reale nuk e justifikojn\u00eb plot\u00ebsisht mbi\u00e7mimin e lekut , do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se ka nj\u00eb ekonomi reale jo zyrtare q\u00eb furnizohet me flukse n\u00eb monedh\u00eb t\u00eb huaj edhe q\u00eb nuk num\u00ebrohet, por q\u00eb vlen t\u00eb trajtohet kur flasim p\u00ebr forcimin e lekut . <\/p>\n
-Djalli fshihet n\u00eb detaje !<\/p>\n
Megjith\u00ebse Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb nuk i del hapur kund\u00ebr qeveris\u00eb , kur flet p\u00ebr forcimin e lekut e quan at\u00eb mbi\u00e7mim. <\/p>\n
N\u00ebse do ti referohemi monedh\u00ebs si nj\u00eb let\u00ebr me vler\u00eb vler\u00ebsimi i saj varet nga Pariteti i Fuqis\u00eb Bler\u00ebse (PPP) edhe k\u00ebrkes\u00eb -ofert\u00eb .<\/p>\n
Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb e n\u00ebn\u00e7muar kur \u00e7mimi i monedh\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i ul\u00ebt se sa justifikojn\u00eb bazat ekonomike;
\nE \u00e7muar drejt\u00ebsisht (n\u00eb ekuilib\u00ebr): kur kursi i k\u00ebmbimit n\u00eb treg pasqyron sakt\u00eb vler\u00ebn e saj reale ekonomike bazuar n\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00eb-oferte dhe fuqin\u00eb bler\u00ebse;
\nEdhe e mbi\u00e7muar kur monedha tregtohet m\u00eb shtrenjt\u00eb se sa justifikojn\u00eb k\u00ebrkes\u00eb oferta edhe fuqia bler\u00ebse .<\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomist\u00ebt q\u00eb kuptojn\u00eb efektet e mbi\u00e7mimit p\u00ebr mir\u00ebq\u00ebnien edhe ekonomin\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00ebr\u00ebsi n\u00eb afat t\u00eb gjat\u00eb duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar. <\/p>\n
\u00c7do ekonomist i lir\u00eb nga detyrat shtet\u00ebrore \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb drejt\u00ebn e tij t’ja atriboj\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb mbi\u00e7mim \u00e7do faktori shtes\u00eb t\u00eb padeklaruar, edhe t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb nd\u00ebrhyrje p\u00ebr ndryshimin e situat\u00ebs. <\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrsa \u00e7do ekonomist q\u00eb ushtron detyra shtet\u00ebrore, e ka detyr\u00eb jo vet\u00ebm t\u00eb d\u00ebgjoj\u00eb por edhe t\u00eb argumentoj\u00eb me matje pse leku \u00ebsht\u00eb i mbi\u00e7muar edhe \u00e7far\u00eb ka \u00e7uar n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb mbi\u00e7mim i cili duhet patjet\u00ebr t\u00eb balancohet !<\/p>\n
PS. Ky status mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb i v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr lexuesin jo ekonomist, por sot k\u00ebshtu i donte mushka drut\u00eb .<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Shpjegon Irena Beqiraj, ish-zv.Ministre e Financave: \u00c7far\u00eb ka ndikuar n\u00eb mbi\u00e7mimin e lekut? Albert Einstein thoshte: “Jo \u00e7do gj\u00eb q\u00eb ka vler\u00eb num\u00ebrohet edhe jo \u00e7do gj\u00eb q\u00eb num\u00ebrohet ka vler\u00eb “. Kjo shprehje m’u kujtua nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebrmblidhja k\u00ebto rreshta p\u00ebr mbivler\u00ebsimin e lekut ose si\u00e7 e quan Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb mbi\u00e7mim e lekut. A […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":98039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-98037","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-te-tjera"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98037"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98037\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98040,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98037\/revisions\/98040"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98039"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}