Si ka mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb monedha e nj\u00eb prej zonave ekonomike m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme t\u00eb planetit zhvler\u00ebsohet vazhdimisht p\u00ebrball\u00eb lekut?<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrgjigjja zyrtare q\u00eb t\u00eb japin patronazhist\u00ebt e financave \u00ebsht\u00eb magjike: ekonomia jon\u00eb po fluturon!<\/p>\n
Numrat “nuk” t\u00eb g\u00ebnjejn\u00eb. Kur sheh shifrat, t\u00eb krijohet p\u00ebrshtypja se Wall Street-i \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb filial i tregut \u00c7am n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Sot, euro ka zbritur n\u00eb rreth 94 lek\u00eb. Vet\u00ebm pak vite m\u00eb par\u00eb, t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn euro e k\u00ebmbenim me 120 apo 125 lek\u00eb. Forcimi i lekut \u00ebsht\u00eb tashm\u00eb nj\u00eb prirje disavje\u00e7are dhe jo nj\u00eb tek\u00eb sezonale, kur emigrant\u00ebt vijn\u00eb t\u00eb harxhojn\u00eb kursimet dhe turist\u00ebt e huaj zbulojn\u00eb \u201cMaldivet e Europ\u00ebs\u201d me \u00e7mime t\u00eb Dubait.<\/p>\n
Sigurisht, kursi i k\u00ebmbimit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb ndeshje boksi ku pesha m\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00eb mund pesh\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb leht\u00eb. Fuqia e nj\u00eb monedhe nuk p\u00ebrcaktohet mekanikisht nga muskujt e ekonomis\u00eb reale. Ajo ndikohet edhe nga nj\u00eb koktej normash interesi, inflacioni, kapitalesh, remitancash, investimesh dhe besimi, ku disa p\u00ebrb\u00ebr\u00ebs p\u00ebrzihen n\u00eb drit\u00eb t\u00eb diellit dhe disa t\u00eb tjer\u00eb n\u00ebn drit\u00ebn e h\u00ebn\u00ebs.
\nPo n\u00ebse leku po forcohet kaq shum\u00eb dhe p\u00ebr kaq gjat\u00eb, pyetja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebse n\u00eb vend po hyjn\u00eb euro. K\u00ebt\u00eb e sheh edhe nj\u00eb i verb\u00ebr q\u00eb ec\u00ebn n\u00eb trotuaret e Tiran\u00ebs, aty ku mbillen kulla me nj\u00eb shpejt\u00ebsi q\u00eb do ta kishte zili edhe bujq\u00ebsia socialiste n\u00eb koh\u00ebn e misrit hibrid.<\/p>\n
Pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb: nga hyjn\u00eb eurot, sa hyjn\u00eb, si hyjn\u00eb dhe ku p\u00ebrfundojn\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Versioni zyrtar \u00ebsht\u00eb i njohur: turizmi ka rritje galaktike, emigrant\u00ebt po d\u00ebrgojn\u00eb para, investimet e huaja po rriten dhe edhe t\u00eb huajt jan\u00eb dashuruar me betonin ton\u00eb dhe po blejn\u00eb apartamente.<\/p>\n
Argument i denj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u treguar si p\u00ebrrall\u00eb para gjumit t\u00eb vap\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Vendi vazhdon t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb ekonomi me deficit t\u00eb madh tregtar. Kemi nj\u00eb baz\u00eb prodhuese aq t\u00eb dob\u00ebt, sa importojm\u00eb hudhrat nga Kina, fasulet nga Egjiptit, e qum\u00ebshtin nga Serbia. Eksportet p\u00ebrballen me v\u00ebshtir\u00ebsi ekzistenciale dhe produktiviteti yn\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb aq larg mesatares europiane, sa na duhet teleskopi i NASA-s p\u00ebr ta par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, nj\u00eb vend q\u00eb prodhon relativisht pak, importon pothuajse gjith\u00e7ka dhe ka produktivitet t\u00eb ul\u00ebt, ka nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb q\u00eb sillet sikur Shqip\u00ebria ka zbuluar papritur inteligjenc\u00ebn artificiale, mikro\u00e7ipat elektronik\u00eb dhe prodhimin e anijeve kozmike.<\/p>\n
Le t\u00eb shohim Turqin\u00eb, nj\u00eb vend mik dhe aleat strategjik. N\u00eb vitin 2023, nj\u00eb euro k\u00ebmbehej me rreth 21 lira turke. N\u00eb korrik 2026, nj\u00eb euro k\u00ebmbehet me rreth 53 lira.
\nDhe po flasim p\u00ebr nj\u00eb vend me industri automobilistike, tekstile, elektronik\u00eb, bujq\u00ebsi t\u00eb zhvilluar dhe nj\u00eb industri ushtarake q\u00eb eksporton dron\u00eb Bayraktar n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn. N\u00eb Turqi pra q\u00eb i shet dron\u00eb Ukrain\u00ebs, sistem radaresh Polonis\u00eb, anije Portugalis\u00eb e s\u00eb shpejti dhe avion\u00eb Spanj\u00ebs.<\/p>\n
Por ja q\u00eb lira turke bie, nd\u00ebrsa leku yn\u00eb fluturon sikur ushqehet me kerozin\u00eb. A \u00ebsht\u00eb Shqip\u00ebria ekonomikisht m\u00eb e fuqishme se Turqia? Pa dyshim. Ata prodhojn\u00eb dron\u00ebt, ne i p\u00ebrdorim p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb nga lart sa veta kan\u00eb ardhur n\u00eb protest\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Atje, inflacioni i lart\u00eb, politikat monetare dhe humbja e besimit e kan\u00eb gjunj\u00ebzuar lir\u00ebn, nd\u00ebrsa k\u00ebtu, hyrja e madhe e valut\u00ebs n\u00eb nj\u00eb treg t\u00eb vog\u00ebl ka herkulizuar lekun.<\/p>\n
Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb ka nd\u00ebrhyr\u00eb duke bler\u00eb sasi t\u00eb m\u00ebdha eurosh p\u00ebr t\u00eb frenuar forcimin e lekut. Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb n\u00ebnt\u00eb muajt e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2024, nd\u00ebrhyrjet valutore arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb rreth 2.6 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb s\u00eb vitit 2023, pothuajse trefishi i s\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebs periudh\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00eb viti m\u00eb par\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Pra, edhe Banka Qendrore po p\u00ebrpiqet ta mbaj\u00eb n\u00ebn kontroll k\u00ebt\u00eb lekun ton\u00eb rebel, q\u00eb vuan nga sh\u00ebndeti i tep\u00ebrt.<\/p>\n
Por mesa duket kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb vet\u00ebm pun\u00eb bankier\u00ebsh.<\/p>\n
Sepse, kur p\u00ebrve\u00e7 turizmit, remitancave dhe investimeve t\u00eb deklaruara, n\u00eb ekonomi qarkullon edhe nj\u00eb sektor i madh informal, pyetja mbi origjin\u00ebn dhe natyr\u00ebn e t\u00eb gjitha flukseve valutore nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb teori konspirative, \u00ebsht\u00eb pyetje ekonomike, institucionale dhe \u00e7\u00ebshtje e zbatimit t\u00eb ligjit.<\/p>\n
Nuk mund t\u00eb thuhet se forcimi i lekut \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm produkt i paras\u00eb s\u00eb zez\u00eb, por \u00ebsht\u00eb po aq joserioze q\u00eb \u00e7do pyetje mbi flukset informale t\u00eb valut\u00ebs t\u00eb trajtohet si herezi ekonomike.<\/p>\n
Dosjet e hetimeve t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb Spak kan\u00eb treguar se ekonomia kriminale nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb univers paralel q\u00eb jeton n\u00eb Mars. Parat\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb t\u00eb hyjn\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb reale, t\u00eb investohen, t\u00eb nd\u00ebrtojn\u00eb, t\u00eb blejn\u00eb dhe t\u00eb qarkullojn\u00eb. Pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb se n\u00eb \u00e7far\u00eb mase k\u00ebto flukse ndikojn\u00eb n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb shqiptare dhe n\u00eb tregun valutor.
\nKjo pyetje k\u00ebrkon p\u00ebrgjigje, jo patronazhiz\u00ebm financiar.<\/p>\n
Por guximi m\u00eb i madh nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb t\u00eb shpjegosh pse leku forcohet. Guximi m\u00eb i madh \u00ebsht\u00eb ta shes\u00ebsh r\u00ebnien e euros si sukses.
\nSukses p\u00ebr k\u00eb?<\/p>\n
Eksportuesi shqiptar paguhet n\u00eb euro dhe paguan pun\u00ebtor\u00ebt, energjin\u00eb dhe nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb kostove n\u00eb lek\u00eb. Kur euro bie, t\u00eb ardhurat e tij n\u00eb lek\u00eb tkurren.<\/p>\n
Familja q\u00eb pret 200 euro nga djali jasht\u00eb, dikur merrte rreth 24 mij\u00eb lek\u00eb. Sot merr rreth 18 mij\u00eb.
\nPunonj\u00ebsi q\u00eb paguhet n\u00eb euro sheh pag\u00ebn e tij t\u00eb zvog\u00eblohet n\u00eb lek\u00eb pa i r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb qaf\u00eb shefi. <\/p>\n
Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, \u00e7mimet n\u00eb Shqip\u00ebri vuajn\u00eb nga nj\u00eb s\u00ebmundje e \u00e7uditshme: kan\u00eb memorie t\u00eb shk\u00eblqyer kur duhet t\u00eb rriten dhe amnezi t\u00eb plot\u00eb kur duhet t\u00eb ulen. Kafja e m\u00ebngjesit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb e lir\u00eb sepse ra euro, por m\u00eb e shtrenjt\u00eb, qirat\u00eb n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb nuk jan\u00eb ulur, jan\u00eb ngritur, apartamentet nuk jan\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrballueshme, jan\u00eb t\u00eb pamendueshme p\u00ebr t’u bler\u00eb.
\nUshqimet nuk jan\u00eb kthyer n\u00eb \u00e7mimet e vitit 2020, perimet n\u00eb treg kushtojn\u00eb sikur jan\u00eb rritur n\u00eb sera t\u00eb ujitura me uj\u00eb t\u00eb bekuar.
\nK\u00ebtu q\u00ebndron dallimi i madh mes nj\u00eb treguesi t\u00eb bukur n\u00eb tabel\u00ebn e Excel-it dhe jet\u00ebs reale n\u00eb xhepat e qytetar\u00ebve.<\/p>\n
Politika ekonomike nuk ekziston p\u00ebr t\u00eb prodhuar shifra dhe krahasime me vitin 2013. Pyetja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb a jan\u00eb rritur shifrat pyetja \u00ebsht\u00eb a jetojn\u00eb me mire njer\u00ebzit?
\nMund t\u00eb kesh rritje ekonomike dhe qytetar\u00eb q\u00eb ikin nga syt\u00eb k\u00ebmb\u00ebt, mund t\u00eb kesh m\u00eb shum\u00eb turist\u00eb dhe familje shqiptare q\u00eb nuk b\u00ebjn\u00eb dot dy dit\u00eb pushime, mund t\u00eb kesh kulla luksoze dhe t\u00eb rinj q\u00eb jetojn\u00eb me qira deri n\u00eb t\u00eb dyzetat, mund t\u00eb kesh monedh\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb dhe ekonomi prodhuese t\u00eb dob\u00ebt, mund t\u00eb kesh shifra q\u00eb fluturojn\u00eb dhe njer\u00ebz q\u00eb mezi mbyllin muajin.
\nPrandaj pyetja nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm: pse leku \u00ebsht\u00eb kaq i fort\u00eb, por kush fiton nga ky kurs dhe kush humbet?
\nSa ndikonturizmi?Sa remitancat? Sa investimet n\u00eb pasuri t\u00eb paluajtshme?
\nSa flukset e tjera financiare?<\/p>\n
Dhe, mbi t\u00eb gjitha, pse nj\u00eb sukses kaq spektakolar monetar nuk po p\u00ebrkthehet me t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn forc\u00eb n\u00eb mir\u00ebqenie, paga reale, produktivitet dhe kapacitet prodhues?<\/p>\n
T\u00eb thuash se leku i fort\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb prova e sh\u00ebndetit t\u00eb hekurt t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb
\n k\u00ebrkon nj\u00eb doz\u00eb t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme guximi, ose nj\u00eb optimiz\u00ebm t\u00eb p\u00ebrmasave olimpike.<\/p>\n
Sepse t\u00eb mat\u00ebsh fuqin\u00eb e nj\u00eb ekonomie vet\u00ebm me kursin e monedh\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eblloj si t\u00eb shoh\u00ebsh rezultatin e nj\u00eb ndeshjeje dhe t\u00eb shpall\u00ebsh ekipin e Sopotit t\u00eb Librazhdit m\u00eb t\u00eb fort\u00eb se Bajerni i Mynihut.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Si ka mund\u00ebsi q\u00eb monedha e nj\u00eb prej zonave ekonomike m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishme t\u00eb planetit zhvler\u00ebsohet vazhdimisht p\u00ebrball\u00eb lekut? P\u00ebrgjigjja zyrtare q\u00eb t\u00eb japin patronazhist\u00ebt e financave \u00ebsht\u00eb magjike: ekonomia jon\u00eb po fluturon! Numrat “nuk” t\u00eb g\u00ebnjejn\u00eb. Kur sheh shifrat, t\u00eb krijohet p\u00ebrshtypja se Wall Street-i \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb filial i tregut \u00c7am n\u00eb Tiran\u00eb. Sot, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":97981,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-97980","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-te-tjera"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97980","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97980"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97980\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":97982,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97980\/revisions\/97982"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97981"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97980"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97980"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97980"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}