Euro ka p\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb mposhtje t\u00eb madhe ndaj homologut t\u00eb saj amerikan q\u00eb nga pushtimi rus i Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb shkurt, duke r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 20 vjet pasi rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit dhe pasiguria rreth furnizimit rus me energji nxit\u00ebn frik\u00ebn e recesionit n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb, shkruan\u00a0Deutsche Well.
\nMonedha e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt evropiane po tregtohej deri n\u00eb 1,0007 dollar\u00eb t\u00eb mart\u00ebn \u2013 nj\u00eb rr\u00ebshqitje e shpejt\u00eb nga niveli i 1,15 dollar\u00ebve p\u00ebrpara se Rusia t\u00eb niste luft\u00ebn n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. R\u00ebnia e mpreht\u00eb e ka sjell\u00eb euron af\u00ebr arritjes s\u00eb barazis\u00eb ndaj dollarit amerikan p\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb q\u00eb nga fundi i vitit 2002. <\/p>\n
Pse po bie euro? <\/p>\n
P\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsimi i p\u00ebrgjithsh\u00ebm i perspektiv\u00ebs s\u00eb eurozon\u00ebs mes rritjes s\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit dhe frik\u00ebs se Rusia do t\u00eb nd\u00ebrpres\u00eb furnizimet me gaz natyror po zvarrit monedh\u00ebn e p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebt. Mb\u00ebshtetja e madhe e ekonomive t\u00eb m\u00ebdha si Gjermania dhe Italia nga gazi rus i ka l\u00ebn\u00eb investitor\u00ebt t\u00eb nervozuar, me ekonomist\u00ebt q\u00eb parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb recesion shum\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb dhe m\u00eb t\u00eb dhimbsh\u00ebm n\u00eb zon\u00ebn e euros sesa n\u00eb SHBA.
\nK\u00ebsaj i shtohet edhe diferenca n\u00eb nivelet e normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb SHBA dhe eurozon\u00eb. Rezerva Federale e SHBA ka rritur n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb agresive normat e interesit p\u00ebr t\u00eb ulur inflacionin, nd\u00ebrsa Banka Qendrore Evropiane (BQE) deri m\u00eb tani i ka rezistuar rritjeve t\u00eb pjerr\u00ebta. <\/p>\n
\u201cNorma e interesit n\u00eb SHBA pritet t\u00eb shkoj\u00eb deri n\u00eb 3% kundrejt 1% n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb. Pra, parat\u00eb do t\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb vendin me nj\u00eb rendiment m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb\u201d,\u00a0tha p\u00ebr DW Carsten Brzeski, kryeekonomist p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb dhe Austrin\u00eb n\u00eb ING.
\nDollari amerikan po p\u00ebrfiton gjithashtu nga t\u00ebrheqja e tij e streh\u00ebs s\u00eb sigurt. Mes gjith\u00eb err\u00ebsir\u00ebs, \u200b\u200bd\u00ebnimit dhe pasiguris\u00eb rreth ekonomis\u00eb globale, investitor\u00ebt po ngush\u00ebllohen me sigurin\u00eb relative q\u00eb ofron dollari duke qen\u00eb m\u00eb pak i ekspozuar ndaj disa prej rreziqeve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha globale tani.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb barazia e dollarit dhe pse \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pun\u00eb e madhe p\u00ebr euron? <\/p>\n
Barazi n\u00eb thelb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb q\u00eb 1$ blen \u20ac1. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb gj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr ve\u00e7se nj\u00eb prag psikologjik p\u00ebr pjes\u00ebmarr\u00ebsit e tregut, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb njohur p\u00ebr dashurin\u00eb e tyre p\u00ebr figurat e rrumbullak\u00ebta. <\/p>\n
\u201cTregjet financiare gjithmon\u00eb duan t\u00eb gjejn\u00eb nj\u00eb lloj kuptimi simbolik\u201d,\u00a0tha Brzeski. <\/p>\n
Viraj Patel, nj\u00eb strateg i k\u00ebmbimit valutor n\u00eb Vanda Research, tha se niveli i barazis\u00eb mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb nj\u00eb pik\u00eb n\u00eb t\u00eb cil\u00ebn euro demit dhe ariut mbyllin brir\u00ebt p\u00ebr t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktuar se n\u00eb cil\u00ebn drejtim shkon monedha nga atje.\u00a0(Nj\u00eb \u201cdem\u201d sipas p\u00ebrkufizimit \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb investitor q\u00eb blen aksione sepse ata besojn\u00eb se tregu do t\u00eb rritet; nd\u00ebrsa nj\u00eb \u201cari\u201d do t\u00eb shes\u00eb aksione pasi ata besojn\u00eb se tregu do t\u00eb kthehet negativ.)
\n\u201cKoh\u00ebt e fundit, ne kemi filluar t\u00eb shohim investitor\u00ebt q\u00eb bastojn\u00eb euron q\u00eb bie n\u00ebn barazin\u00eb. Por ju mund t\u00eb imagjinoni nj\u00ebsoj se m\u00eb shum\u00eb investitor\u00eb do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb blejn\u00eb euro nd\u00ebrsa i afrohemi atij niveli,\u201d tha ai p\u00ebr DW. <\/p>\n
Si ndikon nj\u00eb euro m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt te konsumator\u00ebt? <\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb euro n\u00eb rr\u00ebshqitje do t\u2019i shtoj\u00eb barr\u00ebn familjeve dhe bizneseve evropiane q\u00eb tashm\u00eb jan\u00eb duke u l\u00ebkundur nga inflacioni rekord. Nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt do t\u2019i b\u00ebnte m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta importet, t\u00eb cilat kryesisht jan\u00eb t\u00eb shprehura n\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Kur k\u00ebto artikuj jan\u00eb l\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb para ose mallra t\u00eb nd\u00ebrmjetme, kostot e tyre m\u00eb t\u00eb larta mund t\u00eb rrisin m\u00eb tej \u00e7mimet lokale. <\/p>\n
N\u00eb koh\u00eb normale, nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb e dob\u00ebt shihet si nj\u00eb lajm i mir\u00eb p\u00ebr eksportuesit dhe ekonomit\u00eb e r\u00ebnda nga eksportet si Gjermania, sepse rrit eksportet duke i b\u00ebr\u00eb ato m\u00eb t\u00eb lira n\u00eb terma dollar\u00eb. Por at\u00ebher\u00eb k\u00ebto nuk jan\u00eb koh\u00eb normale fal\u00eb f\u00ebrkimeve globale t\u00eb zinxhirit t\u00eb furnizimit, sanksioneve dhe luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. <\/p>\n
\u201cN\u00eb situat\u00ebn aktuale me tensione gjeopolitike, mendoj se p\u00ebrfitimet nga nj\u00eb monedh\u00eb e dob\u00ebt jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla se sa disavantazhet\u201d,\u00a0tha Brzeski. Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr udh\u00ebtar\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb q\u00eb shkojn\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb ver\u00eb, nj\u00eb euro e dob\u00ebt \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb bekim. P\u00ebr shembull, n\u00eb nivelin e barazis\u00eb, teorikisht ata do t\u00eb jen\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb shk\u00ebmbejn\u00eb $1,000 p\u00ebr 1,000 \u20ac n\u00eb vend t\u00eb m\u00eb pak se 900 \u20ac n\u00eb shkurt. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, dollari i tyre do t\u00eb vlente shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr. P\u00ebr bizneset q\u00eb importojn\u00eb mallra evropiane, gj\u00ebrat do t\u00eb ishin m\u00eb t\u00eb lira n\u00eb terma dollar\u00eb. <\/p>\n
Ku \u00ebsht\u00eb fundi i euros?
\nBastet se euro do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb r\u00ebnien e saj n\u00ebn barazi jan\u00eb rritur dit\u00ebt e fundit nd\u00ebrsa kriza energjetike n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb p\u00ebrkeq\u00ebsohet. <\/p>\n
\u201cEuro po tregtohet sikur nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb n\u00eb Evrop\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb pragun e der\u00ebs. Pra, ju duhet t\u00eb shihni m\u00eb shum\u00eb lajme t\u00eb k\u00ebqija tani p\u00ebr sa i p\u00ebrket gjith\u00eb narrativ\u00ebs rreth furnizimeve me gaz dhe potencialisht gjeopolitik\u00ebs q\u00eb euro t\u00eb dob\u00ebsohet p\u00ebrtej barazis\u00eb\u201d,\u00a0tha Patel. <\/p>\n
Strateg\u00ebt e Nomura International parashikojn\u00eb se euro mund t\u00eb bjer\u00eb deri n\u00eb 0,95 dollar\u00eb. Kreu i k\u00ebrkimit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit valutor t\u00eb Deutsche Bank, George Saravelos, ka nj\u00eb parashikim t\u00eb ngjash\u00ebm. Nj\u00eb\u00a0\u201cl\u00ebvizje posht\u00eb n\u00eb $0.95-$0.97 do t\u00eb p\u00ebrputhej me ekstremet e t\u00eb gjitha koh\u00ebrave t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb kurset e k\u00ebmbimit q\u00eb nga fundi i Bretton Woods n\u00eb 1971\u201d,\u00a0shkroi ai n\u00eb nj\u00eb sh\u00ebnim t\u00eb 6 korrikut drejtuar klient\u00ebve. <\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00eb do t\u00eb thot\u00eb nj\u00eb euro m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt p\u00ebr BQE-n\u00eb? <\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb euro e dob\u00ebt dhe inflacioni shtes\u00eb q\u00eb ajo sjell shton sfidat e BQE-s\u00eb, e cila tashm\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00ebn v\u00ebzhgim p\u00ebr ngadal\u00ebsimin e blloqeve n\u00eb luft\u00ebn kund\u00ebr inflacionit. <\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u2019i b\u00ebr\u00eb gj\u00ebrat m\u00eb keq p\u00ebr bank\u00ebn qendrore q\u00eb ka mandatin p\u00ebr t\u00eb zbutur inflacionin, euro nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb dob\u00ebsuar vet\u00ebm ndaj dollarit, por edhe ndaj monedhave t\u00eb tjera si franga zvicerane dhe jenit japonez. <\/p>\n
\u201cKjo tani ka filluar t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi m\u00eb e gjer\u00eb e euros dhe p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye b\u00ebhet m\u00eb shum\u00eb nj\u00eb problem inflacioni p\u00ebr BQE-n\u00eb\u201d,\u00a0tha Patel. <\/p>\n
BQE synon t\u00eb rris\u00eb normat baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit me 25 pik\u00eb baz\u00eb jav\u00ebn e ardhshme, rritja e saj e par\u00eb n\u00eb mbi 10 vjet.
\n“Nj\u00eb euro m\u00eb e dob\u00ebt mb\u00ebshtet pik\u00ebpamjen e nj\u00eb rritjeje m\u00eb agresive t\u00eb norm\u00ebs\u201d,\u00a0tha Brzeski.\u00a0\u201cArgumenti pas k\u00ebsaj do t\u00eb ishte se n\u00ebse ne shkojm\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rritje prej 50 pik\u00ebsh baz\u00eb jav\u00ebn e ardhshme dhe jo 25, kjo mund t\u00eb ndaloj\u00eb menj\u00ebher\u00eb r\u00ebnien e euros sepse do t\u00eb befasonte tregjet financiare\u201d. <\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb, disa ekspert\u00eb thon\u00eb se nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie ekonomike do ta vendos\u00eb bank\u00ebn n\u00eb nj\u00eb shtr\u00ebngim, duke e penguar at\u00eb nga \u00e7do shtr\u00ebngim agresiv i politik\u00ebs monetare. Kjo nga ana tjet\u00ebr do t\u00eb siguronte q\u00eb normat e interesit n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb t\u00eb mbeten t\u00eb ndrydhura p\u00ebrball\u00eb SHBA-s\u00eb. Nj\u00eb pritje e till\u00eb tashm\u00eb po luan nj\u00eb rol n\u00eb r\u00ebnien e euros.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Euro ka p\u00ebsuar nj\u00eb mposhtje t\u00eb madhe ndaj homologut t\u00eb saj amerikan q\u00eb nga pushtimi rus i Ukrain\u00ebs n\u00eb shkurt, duke r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt n\u00eb 20 vjet pasi rritja e \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb gazit dhe pasiguria rreth furnizimit rus me energji nxit\u00ebn frik\u00ebn e recesionit n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb, shkruan\u00a0Deutsche Well. Monedha e […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9041,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[27],"class_list":{"0":"post-9040","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomia","8":"tag-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9040"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9040\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9042,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9040\/revisions\/9042"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9041"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}