Kjo nuk do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb. Ka shum\u00eb rreziqe, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb norma t\u00eb larta interesi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, shkruan The Economist<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Edhe pse kan\u00eb shp\u00ebrthyer luft\u00ebrat dhe klima gjeopolitike po b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e zymt\u00eb, ekonomia bot\u00ebrore ka b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb q\u00ebndres\u00eb t\u00eb habitshme. Vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb mendonin se normat e larta t\u00eb interesit do t\u00eb shkaktonin s\u00eb shpejti recesion.<\/p>\n
Tani, edhe optimist\u00ebt kan\u00eb mbetur t\u00eb habitur. Ekonomia e Amerik\u00ebs u p\u00ebrshpejtua n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb, duke u rritur me nj\u00eb rit\u00ebm mahnit\u00ebs vjetor prej 4.9%.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn, inflacioni po bie, papun\u00ebsia ka q\u00ebndruar kryesisht e ul\u00ebt dhe bankat e m\u00ebdha qendrore mund t\u00eb ken\u00eb ndaluar shtr\u00ebngimin monetar.<\/p>\n
Kina, edhe pse e goditur nga kriza e pronave, duket se do t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje modeste. Megjithat\u00eb, p\u00ebr fat t\u00eb keq, ky g\u00ebzim nuk mund t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb. Themelet p\u00ebr rritjen e sotme, duken t\u00eb paq\u00ebndruesh\u00ebm. Rreziqet n\u00eb t\u00eb ardhmen jan\u00eb t\u00eb shumta.<\/p>\n
Ekonomia e pap\u00ebrmbajtur ka nxitur parashikimet se normat e interesit, megjith\u00ebse nuk po rriten m\u00eb me shpejt\u00ebsi, nuk do t\u00eb bien shum\u00eb.<\/p>\n
S\u00eb fundmi, Banka Qendrore Europiane dhe Rezerva Federale i kan\u00eb mbajtur normat e interesit t\u00eb pandryshuara; Banka e Anglis\u00eb pritet t\u00eb ndjek\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn rrug\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Prandaj, yield-et e bonove afatgjata jan\u00eb rritur ndjesh\u00ebm. Qeveria e Amerik\u00ebs duhet t\u00eb paguaj\u00eb tani 5% p\u00ebr t\u00eb marr\u00eb hua p\u00ebr 30 vjet, nga vet\u00ebm 1.2% gjat\u00eb recesionit pandemik. Edhe ekonomit\u00eb e njohura p\u00ebr norma t\u00eb ul\u00ebta interesi kan\u00eb p\u00ebrjetuar rritje t\u00eb mprehta t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n
Jo shum\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, kostot e huamarrjes s\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb ishin negative; tani, yield-i i bonove t\u00eb saj dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7are \u00ebsht\u00eb gati 3%. Banka e Japonis\u00eb ka hequr dor\u00eb nga premtimi p\u00ebr t\u00eb fiksuar kostot e huamarrjes dhjet\u00ebvje\u00e7are n\u00eb 1%.<\/p>\n
Disa ekonomist\u00eb, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb sekretaren e Departamentit t\u00eb Thesarit t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, Janet Yellen, thon\u00eb se k\u00ebto norma m\u00eb t\u00eb larta interesi jan\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e mir\u00eb, sepse reflektojn\u00eb gjendjen e ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fakt, ato jan\u00eb nj\u00eb burim rreziku. P\u00ebr shkak se normat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb, politikat e sotme ekonomike do t\u00eb d\u00ebshtojn\u00eb dhe po ashtu edhe rritja q\u00eb ato kan\u00eb nxitur.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr t\u00eb kuptuar pse kushtet e mira ekonomike t\u00eb dit\u00ebve t\u00eb sotme nuk mund t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb, duhet t\u00eb shqyrtojm\u00eb nj\u00eb nga arsyet pse ekonomia e Amerik\u00ebs n\u00eb ve\u00e7anti ka ecur m\u00eb mir\u00eb se sa pritej.<\/p>\n
Konsumator\u00ebt amerikan\u00eb kan\u00eb shpenzuar parat\u00eb e grumbulluara gjat\u00eb pandemis\u00eb nga ndihmat qeveritare dhe kan\u00eb q\u00ebndruar m\u00eb tep\u00ebr n\u00eb sht\u00ebpi.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto kursime t\u00eb tep\u00ebrta mendohej se ishin shteruar deri tani. Por t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e fundit, tregojn\u00eb se familjeve u ka mbetur ende rreth 1 trilion dollar\u00eb n\u00eb total, gj\u00eb q\u00eb shpjegon pse kan\u00eb kursyer m\u00eb pak t\u00eb ardhura se n\u00eb \u00e7do periudh\u00eb t\u00eb viteve 2010.<\/p>\n
Kur k\u00ebto rezerva t\u00eb tep\u00ebrta kursimesh t\u00eb ken\u00eb mbaruar, do t\u00eb filloj\u00eb t\u00eb ndihet edhe efekti i normave t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit, duke i detyruar konsumator\u00ebt t\u00eb shpenzojn\u00eb m\u00eb pak.<\/p>\n
Dhe do t\u00eb fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb shfaqen telashe n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore, n\u00ebse normat q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb Europ\u00eb dhe n\u00eb Amerik\u00eb, falimentimet e bizneseve tashm\u00eb po rriten n\u00eb num\u00ebr; edhe kompanit\u00eb q\u00eb kan\u00eb marr\u00eb borxh afatgjat\u00eb me norma t\u00eb ul\u00ebta interesi, me kalimin e koh\u00ebs, do duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrballen me kosto m\u00eb t\u00eb larta financimi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7mimet e banesave do t\u00eb bien, t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn n\u00eb terma t\u00eb rregulluar sipas inflacionit, pasi ato u p\u00ebrgjigjen hipotekave m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta.<\/p>\n
Dhe bankat q\u00eb mbajn\u00eb letra me vler\u00eb afatgjata, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur nga huat\u00eb afatshkurtra, do duhet t\u00eb rrisin kapitalin ose t\u00eb bashkohen me nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn, p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbyllur hendeqet e shkaktuara n\u00eb bilance nga normat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n
Bujaria fiskale<\/p>\n
Bujaria fiskale ka nxitur edhe m\u00eb tep\u00ebr vrullin n\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. N\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar ku normat do t\u00eb rriten p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, kjo bujari gjithashtu duket e paq\u00ebndrueshme.<\/p>\n
Sipas FMN-s\u00eb, Britania, Franca, Italia dhe Japonia kan\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb ken\u00eb deficite prej rreth 5% t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb n\u00eb vitin 2023. N\u00eb 12 muajt deri n\u00eb shtator, deficiti i Amerik\u00ebs ishte 2 trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb, ose sa 7.5% e PBB-s\u00eb. Kjo shif\u00ebr \u00ebsht\u00eb sa dyfishi i asaj q\u00eb pritej n\u00eb mesin e vitit 2022.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb nj\u00eb koh\u00eb kur papun\u00ebsia \u00ebsht\u00eb e ul\u00ebt, nj\u00eb huamarrje e till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht e pamatur. Borxhi i qeverive si pjes\u00eb e PBB-s\u00eb n\u00eb vendet e pasura, tani \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb, q\u00eb nga koha e luft\u00ebrave t\u00eb Napoleonit.<\/p>\n
Kur normat e interesit ishin t\u00eb ul\u00ebta, edhe borxhet e larta ishin t\u00eb menaxhueshme. Tani q\u00eb normat jan\u00eb rritur, faturat e interesit po shterojn\u00eb buxhetet.<\/p>\n
Rrjedhimisht, skenari i normave m\u00eb t\u00eb larta p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, k\u00ebrc\u00ebnon t\u00eb shkaktoj\u00eb p\u00ebrplasje midis qeverive dhe bankave qendrore q\u00eb sh\u00ebnjestrojn\u00eb inflacionin.<\/p>\n
Tashm\u00eb, zonja Yellen \u00ebsht\u00eb ndier e detyruar t\u00eb argumentoj\u00eb se bonot e thesarit nuk mbartin premium rreziku dhe Jerome Powell, kryetari i Rezerv\u00ebs Federale, ka k\u00ebmb\u00ebngulur se banka e tij nuk do t\u00eb ul\u00eb normat e interesit dhe nuk do t\u00eb lejoj\u00eb q\u00eb inflacioni t\u00eb marr\u00eb tat\u00ebpjet\u00ebn, thjesht p\u00ebr t\u00eb leht\u00ebsuar trysnin\u00eb mbi buxhetin e qeveris\u00eb.<\/p>\n
\u00c7far\u00ebdo q\u00eb t\u00eb thot\u00eb zoti Powell, nj\u00eb skenar ku normat e interesit do t\u00eb vazhdonin p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, do t\u2019i shtynte investitor\u00ebt t\u00eb vinin n\u00eb dyshim premtimet e qeverive p\u00ebr t\u00eb mbajtur inflacionin t\u00eb ul\u00ebt dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb shlyer borxhet.<\/p>\n
Zot\u00ebruesit e bonove t\u00eb BQE-s\u00eb tashm\u00eb po p\u00ebrqendrohen n\u00eb borxhin e qeveris\u00eb italiane, t\u00eb cilin ajo e mb\u00ebshtet me kredi, nj\u00eb detyr\u00eb q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb b\u00ebr\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb me norma t\u00eb larta.<\/p>\n
Edhe kur yield-et e bonove t\u00eb qeveris\u00eb japoneze ishin vet\u00ebm 0.8% vitin e kaluar, 8% e buxhetit t\u00eb Japonis\u00eb shkoi p\u00ebr pagesat e interesit. Imagjinoni tendosjen n\u00ebse yield-et do t\u00eb arrinin qoft\u00eb edhe nivelet relativisht modeste t\u00eb Gjermanis\u00eb.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr rrjedhoj\u00eb, disa qeveri do t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb shtr\u00ebngojn\u00eb rripat. Por kjo mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb dhimbje ekonomike.<\/p>\n
K\u00ebto tendosje do ta b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb q\u00eb ekonomia bot\u00ebrore t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbush\u00eb shum\u00eb gj\u00ebra q\u00eb tregjet presin prej saj: shmangien e recesionit, uljen e inflacionit, n\u00eb kushte t\u00eb borxheve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha dhe normave t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit.<\/p>\n
Ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa q\u00eb epoka e normave t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit do t\u00eb detyrohet t\u00eb marr\u00eb fund, duke sjell\u00eb dob\u00ebsi ekonomike q\u00eb do t\u2019i lejoj\u00eb bankat qendrore t\u2019i ulin normat pa u rritur inflacioni.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb mund\u00ebsi m\u00eb shpres\u00ebdh\u00ebn\u00ebse \u00ebsht\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtohet rritja e produktivitetit, ndoshta fal\u00eb Inteligjenc\u00ebs Artificiale.<\/p>\n
Rritja e t\u00eb ardhurave q\u00eb do t\u00eb vinte si rrjedhoj\u00eb, do t\u2019i b\u00ebnte t\u00eb p\u00ebrballueshme normat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit. N\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebrtet\u00eb, shifrat e publikuara m\u00eb 2 n\u00ebntor pritet t\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se produktiviteti i Amerik\u00ebs u rrit n\u00eb tremujorin e tret\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Potenciali i Inteligjenc\u00ebs Artificiale p\u00ebr t\u00eb rritur produktivitetin, mund t\u00eb shpjegoj\u00eb pse deri tani, mund\u00ebsia e vazhdimit t\u00eb normave t\u00eb larta t\u00eb interesit nuk ka shkaktuar r\u00ebnien e tregjeve t\u00eb aksioneve.<\/p>\n
Po t\u00eb mos llogaritej rritja e vler\u00ebs s\u00eb shtat\u00eb kompanive t\u00eb teknologjis\u00eb, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb Microsoft dhe Nvidia, treguesi S&P 500 i aksioneve amerikane do t\u00eb kishte r\u00ebn\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb vit.<\/p>\n
Mos shikoni posht\u00eb<\/p>\n
Pavar\u00ebsisht k\u00ebsaj shprese, bota k\u00ebrc\u00ebnohet nga rreziqe q\u00eb mund t\u00eb ulin produktivitetin. Donald Trump ka th\u00ebn\u00eb se do t\u00eb vendos\u00eb tarifa t\u00eb reja, n\u00ebse kthehet n\u00eb Sht\u00ebpin\u00eb e Bardh\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Qeverit\u00eb po shtremb\u00ebrojn\u00eb gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb shum\u00eb tregjet me politikat industriale. Shpenzimet shtet\u00ebrore po rriten si pjes\u00eb e ekonomis\u00eb, me plakjen e popullsis\u00eb, tranzicionin e energjis\u00eb s\u00eb gjelb\u00ebr dhe konfliktet n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn q\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb shpenzime p\u00ebr mbrojtjen.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebrball\u00eb gjith\u00eb k\u00ebtyre sfidave, kushdo q\u00eb v\u00eb bast se ekonomia bot\u00ebrore do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb si normalisht, po luan nj\u00eb loj\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme<\/p>\n
\u00a0Interesat<\/p>\n
Disa ekonomist\u00eb, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb sekretaren e Departamentit t\u00eb Thesarit t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs, Janet Yellen, thon\u00eb se k\u00ebto norma m\u00eb t\u00eb larta interesi jan\u00eb nj\u00eb gj\u00eb e mir\u00eb, sepse reflektojn\u00eb gjendjen e ekonomis\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. N\u00eb fakt, ato jan\u00eb nj\u00eb burim rreziku. P\u00ebr shkak se normat m\u00eb t\u00eb larta ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb, politikat e sotme ekonomike do t\u00eb d\u00ebshtojn\u00eb dhe po ashtu edhe rritja q\u00eb ato kan\u00eb nxitur.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Kjo nuk do t\u00eb zgjas\u00eb. Ka shum\u00eb rreziqe, duke p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb norma t\u00eb larta interesi p\u00ebr nj\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb, shkruan The Economist \u00a0 Edhe pse kan\u00eb shp\u00ebrthyer luft\u00ebrat dhe klima gjeopolitike po b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e zymt\u00eb, ekonomia bot\u00ebrore ka b\u00ebr\u00eb nj\u00eb q\u00ebndres\u00eb t\u00eb habitshme. Vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb vit m\u00eb par\u00eb, t\u00eb gjith\u00eb mendonin se normat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[12,10],"tags":[27],"class_list":{"0":"post-66181","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bota","8":"category-ekonomia","9":"tag-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66181"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66181\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":66183,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66181\/revisions\/66183"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}