Sipas Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00eb k\u00ebto 3 muajt e ver\u00ebs kan\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb qarkullim n\u00eb sistemin bankar plot\u00eb 830 milion \u20ac.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb raportin e fundit mbi politikat monetare Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb i ka dedikuar nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb faktor\u00ebve q\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb pas n\u00ebnccmimit t\u00eb euros n\u00eb tregun financiar vendas. Si edhe m\u00eb her\u00ebt, analiza k\u00ebmb\u00ebngul mbi faktin se trendi i forcimit t\u00eb lekut ka nisur prej vitesh dhe vjen si pasoj\u00eb e performanc\u00ebs pozitive t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb analiz\u00eb Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb i referohet korniz\u00ebs teorike q\u00eb njihet si Pariteti i Pambuluar i Normave t\u00eb Interesit (PPNI), i cili e shikon ecurin\u00eb e kursit n\u00eb baz\u00eb t\u00eb tre variblave. S\u00eb pari, Diferenca midis normave t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb lek\u00eb dhe n\u00eb euro. Nj\u00eb rritje e diferenc\u00ebs midis kthimit t\u00eb ofruar nga instrumentet financiare n\u00eb lek\u00eb ndaj atyre n\u00eb euro, do t\u00eb rriste interesin p\u00ebr t\u00eb kursyer n\u00eb lek\u00eb dhe do t\u00eb rezultonte n\u00eb forcim t\u00eb kursit nominal t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit. S\u00eb dyti, ecuria e primeve t\u00eb k\u00ebrkuar nga investitor\u00ebt, si kompensim p\u00ebr rrezikun e nd\u00ebrmarr\u00eb nga investimi n\u00eb monedha t\u00eb ekonomive m\u00eb pak t\u00eb stabilizuara.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb kontekstin e analiz\u00ebs son\u00eb s\u00eb Bankes ton\u00eb Qendrore, nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie e primeve t\u00eb rrezikut sjell forcim t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit dhe, anasjellas, nj\u00eb rritje e tyre sjell dob\u00ebsim. Dhe s\u00eb treti, konvergjenca e ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare n\u00eb terma t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve (e rrjedhimisht t\u00eb produktivitetit dhe t\u00eb t\u00eb ardhurave), me partnerin ton\u00eb kryesor tregtar: Eurozon\u00ebn. N\u00eb teori, thot\u00eb Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, nj\u00eb trend m\u00eb i shpejt\u00eb konvergjence, i mb\u00ebshtetur nga rritje t\u00eb produktivitetit dhe p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsime strukturore \u2013 pra t\u00eb q\u00ebndrueshme \u2013 t\u00eb pozicionit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb, do t\u00eb absorbohet n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet forcimit t\u00eb kursit nominal t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit dhe jo n\u00ebp\u00ebrmjet nj\u00eb niveli m\u00eb t\u00eb lart\u00eb inflacioni.<\/p>\n
Arsyeja kryesore e forcimit t\u00eb shpejt\u00eb t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit t\u00eb lekut, n\u00ebnvizon Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb, \u00ebsht\u00eb dinamika e trendit real t\u00eb kursit t\u00eb k\u00ebmbimit dhe reduktimi i primeve t\u00eb rrezikut. T\u00eb dy k\u00ebta faktor\u00eb duket se diktohen nga p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsimi strukturor i bilancit t\u00eb jasht\u00ebm t\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb shqiptare, p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim i cili ilustrohet me tre tregues:
\n\u2013 Deficiti i llogaris\u00eb korrente ka pasur nj\u00eb trend t\u00eb qart\u00eb r\u00ebn\u00ebs gjat\u00eb k\u00ebsaj periudhe, nga niveli 7.7% i PBB n\u00eb vitin 2021 n\u00eb nivelin 6.0% n\u00eb vitin 2022 dhe \u2013 m\u00eb tej \u2013 n\u00eb 3.1% n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2023. Ky p\u00ebrmir\u00ebsim \u00ebsht\u00eb diktuar nga rritja e k\u00ebrkes\u00ebs s\u00eb huaj p\u00ebr sh\u00ebrbimet shqiptare t\u00eb turizmit. Flukset hyr\u00ebse t\u00eb turizmit arrit\u00ebn nivelin e 2.8 miliard\u00eb eurove n\u00eb 2022 dhe t\u00eb 624 milion eurove n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2023, duke p\u00ebrshpejtuar ndjesh\u00ebm normat e rritjes. Paralelisht me to, remitancat kan\u00eb ardhur n\u00eb rritje, duke siguruar prurje valutore rreth 833.7 milion\u00eb euro n\u00eb 2022 dhe 213.7 milion\u00eb euro n\u00eb tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit aktual;
\n\u2013 Flukset hyr\u00ebse t\u00eb investimeve t\u00eb huaja direkte (IHD) arrit\u00ebn n\u00eb nivele t\u00eb larta historike prej 1.3 miliard\u00eb euro n\u00eb vitin 2022, me nj\u00eb rritje 33.0%, dhe mbet\u00ebn t\u00eb larta edhe gjat\u00eb tremujorit t\u00eb par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2023.<\/p>\n
\u2013 N\u00eb t\u00eb nj\u00ebjt\u00ebn linj\u00eb, dhe po aq e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme raporti i financimit t\u00eb deficitit t\u00eb llogaris\u00eb korrente ka ardhur n\u00eb rritje. IHD-t\u00eb jan\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se t\u00eb mjaftueshme p\u00ebr t\u00eb financuar t\u00eb gjith\u00eb deficitin korrent dhe p\u00ebr t\u00eb rezultuar n\u00eb tepric\u00eb valute n\u00eb treg. P\u00ebr vitin 2022, ky raport q\u00ebndroi n\u00eb nivelin 111.7%, nd\u00ebrsa p\u00ebr tremujorin e par\u00eb t\u00eb vitit 2023 u rrit n\u00eb 195.2%.
\n\u201cK\u00ebto zhvillime n\u00ebnkuptojn\u00eb se flukset hyr\u00ebse t\u00eb valut\u00ebs n\u00eb vend kan\u00eb qen\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb larta se ato dal\u00ebse duke krijuar tepric\u00eb oferte p\u00ebr valut\u00ebn n\u00eb treg, \u00e7ka ka krijuar premisa p\u00ebr mbi\u00e7mim t\u00eb vazhduesh\u00ebm t\u00eb monedh\u00ebs vendase\u201d, konkludon n\u00eb analiz\u00eb Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sipas Bank\u00ebs s\u00eb Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb vet\u00ebm n\u00eb k\u00ebto 3 muajt e ver\u00ebs kan\u00eb hyr\u00eb n\u00eb qarkullim n\u00eb sistemin bankar plot\u00eb 830 milion \u20ac. N\u00eb raportin e fundit mbi politikat monetare Banka e Shqip\u00ebris\u00eb i ka dedikuar nj\u00eb analiz\u00eb t\u00eb gjat\u00eb faktor\u00ebve q\u00eb q\u00ebndrojn\u00eb pas n\u00ebnccmimit t\u00eb euros n\u00eb tregun financiar vendas. Si edhe m\u00eb her\u00ebt, analiza […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":59130,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,118],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-59129","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomia","8":"category-kryesore"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59129","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59129"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59129\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59131,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59129\/revisions\/59131"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59129"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59129"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59129"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}