Inflacioni n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se tet\u00eb p\u00ebr qind, kursi i euros n\u00eb nivelin e dollarit dhe nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb qeveritare n\u00eb Itali: N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst K\u00ebshilli i Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Evropiane (BQE) do t\u00eb mblidhet k\u00ebt\u00eb t\u00eb enjte (21.07) p\u00ebr t\u00eb vendosur p\u00ebr drejtimin e m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb mbledhjen e fundit t\u00eb K\u00ebshillit n\u00eb qershor presidentja e BQE Christine Lagarde njoftoi kthes\u00ebn n\u00eb normat e interesit, e cila do t\u00eb ishte e para pas nj\u00ebmb\u00ebdhjet\u00eb vjet\u00ebsh. Normat baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit fillimisht pritet t\u00eb rriten me 25 pik\u00eb baz\u00eb dhe m\u00eb pas ndoshta me 50 pik\u00eb baz\u00eb n\u00eb shtator.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb koha e normave negative t\u00eb interesit do t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundonte. Por shum\u00eb banka po reagojn\u00eb q\u00eb tani. Vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Gjermani gati 50 institucione financiare i kan\u00eb hequr plot\u00ebsisht normat negative t\u00eb interesit p\u00ebr depozitat e klient\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre dhe ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb tjera t\u00eb pasojn\u00eb n\u00eb jav\u00ebt n\u00eb vazhdim.<\/p>\n
Banka Qendrore Evropiane (BQE) vjen e vonuar<\/p>\n
Por sa shpejt do t`i ngrej\u00eb BQE normat e interesit, \u00ebsht\u00eb pyetja interesante. \u201cBQE \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb von\u00eb\u201d, thot\u00eb Gertrud Traud, kryeekonomiste e Landesbank Hessen-Th\u00fcringen, Helaba. Duke pasur parasysh norm\u00ebn historikisht t\u00eb lart\u00eb t\u00eb inflacionit prej 8.6 p\u00ebr qind n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb, ajo e quan situat\u00ebn \u201ct\u00eb pasigurt\u201d: \u201cBankat qendrore n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn i kan\u00eb rritur normat e interesit, tani BQE duhet t\u00eb tregoj\u00eb se e merr seriozisht pun\u00ebn dhe lufton inflacionin e saj.\u201d<\/p>\n
Por ritmi dhe p\u00ebrmasa e normalizimit t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare jan\u00eb t\u00eb diskutueshme \u2013 edhe n\u00eb K\u00ebshillin Drejtues t\u00eb BQE. Madje presidenti i Bundesbank Joachim Nagel mund ta imagjinoj\u00eb rritjen e normave baz\u00eb t\u00eb interesit n\u00eb gam\u00ebn restriktive, gj\u00eb q\u00eb do t\u00eb frenonte n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb aktive ekonomin\u00eb. Nagel b\u00ebn pjes\u00eb te p\u00ebrfaq\u00ebsuesit e linj\u00ebs s\u00eb rrept\u00eb t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare (skifter\u00ebt), nd\u00ebrsa mb\u00ebshtet\u00ebsit e nj\u00eb linje m\u00eb t\u00eb relaksuar (p\u00ebllumbat) paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb nga rreziqet e nj\u00eb recesioni, sidomos si rezultat i luft\u00ebs n\u00eb Ukrain\u00eb. Edhe mes v\u00ebzhguesve kursi \u00ebsht\u00eb i diskutuesh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
M\u00eb shum\u00eb se 25 pik\u00eb baz\u00eb?<\/p>\n
K\u00ebshtu Karsten Junius, kryeekonomist n\u00eb bank\u00ebn zvicerane Safra Sarasin, \u00ebsht\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb norm\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit prej 50 pik\u00ebsh baz\u00eb. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb situat\u00eb BQE nuk do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb p\u00ebrqendrohet m\u00eb aq fort n\u00eb njoftimet e saj, t\u00eb ashtuquajturat forward guidance. Edhe n\u00ebse Banka Qendrore fillimisht nd\u00ebrmerr vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb hap t\u00eb vog\u00ebl t\u00eb norm\u00ebs s\u00eb interesit.<\/p>\n
\u00cbsht\u00eb e r\u00ebnd\u00ebsishme, thot\u00eb Getrud Traud, q\u00eb mbik\u00ebqyr\u00ebsit monetar\u00eb t\u00eb b\u00ebjn\u00eb t\u00eb qart\u00eb se jan\u00eb t\u00eb gatsh\u00ebm t\u00eb vazhdojn\u00eb t\u00eb rrisin normat e interesit pas shtatorit, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrmbushin mandatin e tyre. Q\u00eb t\u00eb mbajn\u00eb inflacionin n\u00eb nivelin dy p\u00ebr qind, n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb vlera e euros t\u00eb mbetet e qendrueshme.<\/p>\n
Megjithat\u00eb situata aktuale nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb e leht\u00eb p\u00ebr mbikqyr\u00ebsit e euros. Nga nj\u00ebra an\u00eb ata duhet t\u00eb normalizojn\u00eb politik\u00ebn monetare. Por n\u00ebse frenojn\u00eb shum\u00eb fort, mbysin ekonomin\u00eb. \u201cN\u00eb lidhje me \u00e7mimet e energjis\u00eb ata nuk mund t\u00eb ndryshojn\u00eb gjithsesi asgj\u00eb\u201d, shpjegon Martin L\u00fcck, kryeekonomist p\u00ebr Gjermanin\u00eb n\u00eb menaxhuesin m\u00eb t\u00eb madh t\u00eb aseteve n\u00eb bot\u00eb, Blackrock, \u201ck\u00ebshtu q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb do t\u00eb duhet t\u00eb ulin \u00e7mimet p\u00ebr gj\u00ebra t\u00eb tjera, mallra dhe sh\u00ebrbime.\u201d<\/p>\n
Sikur t\u00eb mos ket\u00eb gaz<\/p>\n
Edhe pa nd\u00ebrhyrjen e BQE rreziku i recesionit do t\u00eb rritet n\u00eb radh\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb, n\u00ebse Rusia dit\u00ebn kur mblidhet K\u00ebshilli i BQE, nuk e hap s\u00ebrish rubinetin e gazit pas kontrollit t\u00eb mir\u00ebmbajtjes s\u00eb gazsjell\u00ebsit Nord Stream 1. \u201eNormalizimi\u201d i politik\u00ebs monetare do t\u00eb thot\u00eb sipas L\u00fcck, afrimi me \u201cnorm\u00ebn neutrale t\u00eb interesit\u201d, pra norm\u00ebn e interesit me t\u00eb cil\u00ebn ekonomia as nuk p\u00ebrshpejtohet dhe as ngadal\u00ebsohet.\u201d Megjithat\u00eb se ku ndodhet aktualisht ajo n\u00eb zon\u00ebn e euros, \u00ebsht\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrcaktohet.<\/p>\n
BQE mund t\u00eb ndodhet n\u00ebn presion, edhe sepse diferenca e normave t\u00eb interesit ndaj SHBA po zgjerohet. Pasi inflacioni atje arriti n\u00eb 9.1 p\u00ebrqind n\u00eb qershor, Rezerva Federale e SHBA ka t\u00eb ngjar\u00eb t\u00eb rris\u00eb normat e interesit me 75 pik\u00eb baz\u00eb nga 1.5 aktuale n\u00eb 1.75 p\u00ebrqind. Kjo vazhdon t\u00eb ushtroj\u00eb presion mbi euron, q\u00eb para disa dit\u00ebsh kishte r\u00ebn\u00eb n\u00eb nivelin e dollarit amerikan.<\/p>\n
Dhe s\u00eb fundi tregjet financiare v\u00ebshtrojn\u00eb edhe nga Italia. Kriza qeveritare atje nuk e leht\u00ebson situat\u00ebn p\u00ebr BQE. Kryeministri Mario Draghi \u00ebsht\u00eb ende n\u00eb detyr\u00eb, por nuk dihet se sa do t\u00eb vazhdoj\u00eb k\u00ebshtu. N\u00eb tetor mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb madje edhe zgjedhje t\u00eb reja. Ata mund t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb n\u00eb \u201cturbulenca t\u00eb konsiderueshme\u201d n\u00eb tregjet e obligacioneve qeveritare n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb, n\u00ebse qeverin\u00eb e re do ta udh\u00ebheqin eurokritik\u00ebt, dyshon Edgar Walk, kryeekonomist n\u00eb Bankhaus Metzler.<\/p>\n
BQE ka shpallur nj\u00eb t\u00eb ashtuquajtur instrument kund\u00ebr fragmentimit. P\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj ajo d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb zbus\u00eb paraprakisht turbulencat e mundshme n\u00eb tregjet e obligacioneve qeveritare evropiane. \/DW<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Inflacioni n\u00eb eurozon\u00eb n\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb se tet\u00eb p\u00ebr qind, kursi i euros n\u00eb nivelin e dollarit dhe nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb qeveritare n\u00eb Itali: N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb kontekst K\u00ebshilli i Bank\u00ebs Qendrore Evropiane (BQE) do t\u00eb mblidhet k\u00ebt\u00eb t\u00eb enjte (21.07) p\u00ebr t\u00eb vendosur p\u00ebr drejtimin e m\u00ebtejsh\u00ebm t\u00eb politik\u00ebs monetare. N\u00eb mbledhjen e fundit t\u00eb K\u00ebshillit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10085,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[27],"class_list":{"0":"post-10084","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomia","8":"tag-lajme"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10084","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10084"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10084\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10086,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10084\/revisions\/10086"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10085"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10084"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10084"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/neutrale.al\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10084"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}